陈文博, 颜健, 侯光波, 张鑫达, 李澍. 基于事故树和层次分析法的珍珠棉生产企业火灾风险评估[J]. 职业卫生与应急救援, 2024, 42(6): 781-787. DOI: 10.16369/j.oher.issn.1007-1326.2024.06.016
引用本文: 陈文博, 颜健, 侯光波, 张鑫达, 李澍. 基于事故树和层次分析法的珍珠棉生产企业火灾风险评估[J]. 职业卫生与应急救援, 2024, 42(6): 781-787. DOI: 10.16369/j.oher.issn.1007-1326.2024.06.016
CHEN Wenbo, YAN Jian, HOU Guangbo, ZHANG Xinda, LI Shu. Fire risk assessment of pearl cotton manufacturing enterprises based on fault tree analysis and analytic hierarchy process[J]. Occupational Health and Emergency Rescue, 2024, 42(6): 781-787. DOI: 10.16369/j.oher.issn.1007-1326.2024.06.016
Citation: CHEN Wenbo, YAN Jian, HOU Guangbo, ZHANG Xinda, LI Shu. Fire risk assessment of pearl cotton manufacturing enterprises based on fault tree analysis and analytic hierarchy process[J]. Occupational Health and Emergency Rescue, 2024, 42(6): 781-787. DOI: 10.16369/j.oher.issn.1007-1326.2024.06.016

基于事故树和层次分析法的珍珠棉生产企业火灾风险评估

Fire risk assessment of pearl cotton manufacturing enterprises based on fault tree analysis and analytic hierarchy process

  • 摘要:
    目的 评估珍珠棉生产过程中的火灾与爆炸风险,探究珍珠棉生产企业火灾爆炸事故的主要致灾因素,为制定有效的风险防控措施提供科学依据。
    方法 通过对3家珍珠棉生产企业的现场调研和同类事故调查,结合文献研究、系统分析、专家咨询等方式,辨识珍珠棉生产企业的火灾风险;利用事故树对火灾爆炸事故的原因进行分析,采用层次分析方法确定预防火灾爆炸事故的准则层和指标层要素,并对各指标进行权重赋值与评价。
    结果 分析珍珠棉生产工艺及物料理化特性可知,在生产和仓储环节中,持续散发的丁烷气体积聚,是导致火灾风险的关键因素。事故树分析得出:通风不畅对火灾事故发生的影响最大;其次是安全管理不到位;再次是丁烷气体挥发或设备故障引起的泄漏。层次分析法的准则层要素中,一级指标为“安全设施”“安全管理”“基础设施”,权重系数分别为0.624、0.239、0.137;指标层要素中,二级指标为“消防系统”“事故通风系统”“动火审批”“防静电系统”“气体监测系统”,权重系数分别为0.218、0.172、0.139、0.135、0.099。完善安全设施可以有效预防事故发生,特别是消防系统和事故通风系统起到关键作用。
    结论 基于事故树和层次分析法对事故风险评估结果的相互印证,可知通风不畅对火灾爆炸事故发生影响最大,安全管理不到位是另一个重要的风险因素,安全设施将在事故预防中发挥关键作用。提出可通过完善通风系统、严格明火管控和强化安全管理等防范措施,预防类似事故发生。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective To assess the fire and explosion risks in the pearl cotton manufacturing process and to identify the main disaster-causing factors in pearl cotton production enterprises, providing a scientific basis for formulating effective risk control measures.
    Methods Through on-site investigations of three pearl cotton manufacturing enterprises and analysis of similar incidents, combined with the literature review, systematic analysis, and expert consultations, fire risks in pearl cotton production enterprises were identified. Fault tree analysis was used to analyze the causes of fire and explosion incidents, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was employed to determine the criteria and index layers for preventing fire and explosion accidents, with weights assigned to each index for evaluation.
    Results Analysis of the production process and physicochemical properties of pearl cotton revealed that the accumulation of continuously emitted butane gas during production and storage is a key factor contributing to fire risk. Fault tree analysis showed that poor ventilation had the greatest impact on the occurrence of fire incidents, followed by inadequate safety management and butane gas leakage caused by evaporation or equipment failure. In the AHP criteria layer, the primary indicators were "safety facilities, " "safety management, " and "infrastructure, " with weight coefficients of 0.624, 0.239, and 0.137, respectively. In the index layer, secondary indicators included "fire protection system, " "emergency ventilation system, " "hot work approval, " "anti-static system, " and "gas monitoring system" with weight coefficients of 0.218, 0.172, 0.139, 0.135, and 0.099, respectively. Improving safety facilities, particularly fire protection systems and emergency ventilation systems, can effectively prevent accidents.
    Conclusions The mutual verification of the risk assessment results based on fault tree analysis and the Analytic Hierarchy Process indicated that poor ventilation had the greatest impact on the occurrence of fire and explosion incidents, with inadequate safety management being another important risk factor. Safety facilities play a critical role in accident prevention. Measures such as improving ventilation systems, strictly controlling open flames, and strengthening safety management are proposed to prevent similar incidents.

     

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